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To Whom it May Concern at the United Nations Climate Change Conference
by: Sylvia Kniss
I am writing to you today to express my concerns for the severity of climate change and how important it is to meet the goals of COP27. I believe that the attendants of this conference are dedicated to helping better the planet for people all over the world, but the conference cannot only continue the negotiations about reducing climate change, it must put those negotiations into action (El-Sisi, 2022). Through the described goals of the conference, it is clear that the effects of climate change such as the monsoons in Pakistan, floods in South Sudan, and drought in Somalia, have been acknowledged and that efforts will be made to help curb them (COP27, 2022). In this letter, I hope to add urgency to the plans being made to help reduce climate change before it is too late.
Climate change is a complex issue that is very hard to simplify into its parts, which limits how accurate estimates can be. However, climate change affects the whole globe and is not an issue that can be ignored. This also means that one solution will not be perfect for all parts of the world. Every country and every town has their own culture that affects what can be done to help the environment. Something that can be agreed on however, is that one of the main causes of climate change is carbon dioxide emissions from the human use of fossil fuels.
Figure 1: The exponential growth of carbon dioxide emissions over time from 1890 – 1980.
Carbon dioxide emissions have only grown over time, as demonstrated in Figure 1 above, and will continue growing in an exponential manner unless serious action is taken to reduce carbon emissions. Figure 2, below, better demonstrates how quickly emissions will increase in only about 80 years.
Figure 2: Carbon dioxide emissions already measured and how quickly they are estimated to grow from 1870 – 2100.
The graph above demonstrates the severity of the situation and how if nothing is done about this issue, it will not go away on its own. Climate change is going to continue to get exponentially worse as carbon emissions get exponentially worse.
The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere correlates positively with the amount of carbon emissions released into the atmosphere and will not level off as emissions continue. Figure 3, below, demonstrates this correlation.
Figure 3: Carbon dioxide concentration in positive correlation with the amount of carbon dioxide emissions.
Carbon dioxide concentrations rising are the main cause of climate change and the figure above demonstrates that carbon emissions are one of the reasons behind global warming, as they cause increases in carbon dioxide concentrations (Buis, 2022). The establishment of this relationship adds to the severity of the climate crisis by showing how quickly levels can rise. Figure 4, below, shows that the concentration of carbon dioxide is increasing exponentially in the same fashion as the carbon emissions in Figure 2. The estimates in both Figure 2 and Figure 4 follow the trends in the measured values meaning that the alarming rate at which the emissions and concentrations are increasing is most likely correct if nothing is done to stop them. The similarity in trends shows the correlation of the two factors in the climate situation and that if we do not stop carbon emissions, factors like the greenhouse effect will continue to cause problems as the concentration of carbon dioxide increases.
Figure 4: Estimated exponential growth of carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere compared to the measured carbon dioxide concentrations from 1870 – 2100.
The greenhouse effect—from gasses like carbon dioxide—is causing the warming of the planet and all the issues associated with climate change such as crop failures, displaced people, and the increase in natural disasters (UN News, 2022). The correlation between the concentration of carbon dioxide and temperature is demonstrated in Figure 5 below. A similar relationship between temperature and concentration—and between concentration and carbon emissions—allows for a connection to be made between temperature and carbon emissions. Figure 6, below, also shows similarity between the exponential nature of emissions and temperature. The estimates in Figure 6 align well with the measured values over the period of 1870 – 2020 meaning that it is likely that the temperatures will continue to rise at alarming rates unless something is done.
Figure 5: Positive correlation between rising global temperatures and increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations.
Figure 6: Exponential nature of estimated rising temperatures compared to the measured global temperature from 1870 – 2100.
These estimates were made using the measured values from 1890 – 1980. Trendlines were fit to the data to get the most accurate predictions possible. The equations from those trend lines were then used to predict the estimates from 1990 – 2100. Comparisons between the overlap in the measured data from 1980 – 2010 was used to determine the accuracy of the predictions. While the estimates in these graphs may not be perfect due to the complexity of climate change, any degree of accuracy in these predictions is cause for alarm with the severity of the consequences that these new temperatures could bring. To summarize the findings above, in the year 2100, it is projected that global carbon dioxide emissions will reach over 134,000 billion kilograms, carbon dioxide concentrations will reach over 1500 ppm, and global temperatures will reach 61.8 °F.
To curb the problem of climate change, we would need to come back to the root of the problem that is causing the rise in both carbon dioxide concentrations and temperature: carbon emissions. Reducing carbon emissions would mean reducing the amount of fossil fuels that are used which is a daunting task. Many people do not want to stop the use of fossil fuels because they are abundant, available, and efficient. Transitioning to alternative energy sources, such as wind and solar, is very difficult when so much infrastructure is built around fossil fuels. Sacrifices must be made to truly make an impact that will curb carbon emissions the way that global leaders have been talking about for years.
There needs to be a transition from just talking about solutions to actually implementing them. One of the goals of the United Nations is the 1.5 °C goal that says that if the earth warms by more than 1.5 degrees, there will be disastrous consequences for not only the planet, but human populations. We are currently 0.4 degrees away from that threshold, and according to the above predictions, we will get to 1.5 °C sooner rather than later (UN News, 2022). The climate crisis is here; it is real, and it is in need of quick solutions. These solutions will look different for each country depending on their needs, but each country needs to work to help stop climate change. With growing climate change problems, crops will continue to fail, natural disasters will continue to have more severe consequences, and more people will lose their homes (UN News 2022).
Some solutions could include integrating renewable energy sources into the framework of infrastructure in developing countries. More pressure could be put on corporations to use profits to implement renewable energy strategies in all different nations. There could be a stronger push for individuals in wealthier nations to reduce their own use of fossil fuels in their homes and with their vehicles. Governments in these nations could provide rewards to incentivize people to use less nonrenewable energy. More radical measures could also be taken to reduce the use of fossil fuels such as putting high taxes on the purchase of private jets that use a lot of fuel for only a few people. Solutions such as these are not ones that can be implemented overnight, but starting to work on these solutions now will only benefit the planet and the reduction of climate change in the future. Many of these solutions will have a lot of push back from citizens, but they will be necessary in the long run to help those citizens live long, healthy lives.
In conclusion, finding solutions to climate change is imperative to the health of the planet and of the people. Climate change and its negative effects are growing exponentially and are predicted to be at extremely high levels by 2100. These estimates are only about 80 years away, which is not a lot of time to implement the drastic changes necessary to curb climate change. Each and every nation at COP27 needs to create solutions to the problem of climate change that will work with the diverse needs of their own individual country. The outcome of this conference needs to be that the talking about solutions comes to an end and the execution of solutions begins. Thank you so much for your time and consideration of this pressing issue and how to fix it.
Works Cited
Buis, A. (2022, November 16). The atmosphere: Getting a handle on carbon dioxide – climate change: Vital signs of the planet. NASA. Retrieved November 22, 2022, from https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2915/the-atmosphere-getting-a-handle-on-carbon-dioxide/#:~:text=The%20concentration%20of%20carbon%20dioxide,it%20was%20near%20370%20ppm.
COP27. (2022). Round table on “Climate change and the sustainability of vulnerable communities.” COP27. Retrieved November 22, 2022, from https://cop27.eg/assets/files/days/COP27%20CLIMATE%20CHANGE-DOC-01-EGY-10-22-EN.pdf
El-Sisi, A. F. (2022). From President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi. COP27. Retrieved November 22, 2022, from https://cop27.eg/#/speeches/president-speech
UN News. (2022, November 15). Keep the 1.5°C goal alive, experts and civil society urge on ‘Energy Day’ at COP27. United Nations. Retrieved November 22, 2022, from https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/11/1130622#:~:text=Simon%20Stiell%2C%20UN%20Climate%20Change%20(UNFCCC)%20Executive%20Secretary%2C,in%20science%20and%20hard%20data.